Posted by: bklunk | October 3, 2006

Two-Level Games

Costly Lost (all fact obtained…

Harpo 3206 is blogging about Brazil.  The post below is an interesting example of how domestic and international politics can be linked.  Lula’s re-election may be affected by his success in dealing with Bolivia.  On the other hand, his ability to negotiate with Bolivia is constrained by the timing of the run-off.  On the other hand, is it possible that Lula’s hand in dealing with Bolivia (and its leftist president) might be strengthened by the run-off.  Can Lula turn to Moarales and say “Look, you had better cut a deal with me, because if I lose, it will be harder to deal with my opponent?  Can you think of similar situations?

Costly Lost (all fact obtained from sitre)

This past weekend involved a failure for the president of Brazil, as Luiz Inacio da Silva failed to capture a majority vote in the first round.  Although the only danger for da silva is now a run off vote in late October, much more is at stake for Brazil.  brazil is in a standoff in negotiations with Bolivia, as leftist president Evo Moarales wishes to hike up the price for natural a gas a whomping 75%, up from current $4 peer million thermal units.  The dilemma within this problem is not in favor of da Silva or Brazil.  Da Silva has not yet clinched the necessary votes for reelection; and therefore can’t afford to lose any more as he will most likely disagree with Morales.  Furthermore, the negotiations are scheduled to close before the end of October, which would not give da Silva much time to act upon another course of action should he win the presidency.  meanwhile, Bolivia’s nationalization has sevrely angered Brazilian business leaders, and having the deadlines at a point in which neither candidate can afford to express views on the issue isnt exactly helpful.  The election was set to a run off due to the fact that neither candidate was able to secure a mjoirty vote, leaving da Silva a few percent off.  It seemed that da Silva had clinched a first round victory but had harmed his chances as previous to the election members of the working party were alleged to attempt to buy dirt on the opposition for an amount of $770,000.  Therefore, the election will now be dicided in a run off on October 29.

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